Global Refining Capacity Outlook

The annual model tests potential gasoil/diesel supply against consumption. Its result depends strongly on yields, utilization, delivery and outages. If the sensitivity range crosses zero, the selected evidence does not establish either a certain structural deficit or surplus.

The solid OPEC capacity series covers 2021–2025, with throughput available here for 2024–2025. IEA’s 2024 capacity is a historical estimate. Opening 2026 reference capacity is estimated using its dated 2025 schedule, not presented as observed 2025 data. All modeled 2026–2030 points are conditional projections.

Capacity boundaries and source vintages differ, including condensate splitters in the IEA definition. Joining the series would turn a definition change into a fictional capacity loss. The model keeps its IEA reference consistent and shows OPEC observations separately.

The first non-negative modeled year is a conditional threshold, not a repair forecast. The page does not establish a measured global shortage or a certain end date. Product specifications, regional demand, inventories and transport can produce shortages despite adequate aggregate capacity.

Yes. Distillation, upgrading, hydrogen and desulphurization constrain product output. Crude supply does not by itself add these capabilities or guarantee that diesel can reach importing regions.

Ending installed capacity equals opening installed capacity plus delivered additions minus permanent closures plus the selected unitemized net source change. Each ending value becomes the following year’s opening value. Recoveries never increase installed capacity.

IEA Table 4 gives regional net changes, while Table 4b names selected large projects and closures. Their residual cannot honestly be called gross additions. It is displayed separately, excluded by default, and never added on top of the full source total.

No. Unverified construction status is classified as planned and excluded by the default zero planned-delivery setting. Construction delivery is a separate input. Unknown commissioning years and cancelled or delayed projects are excluded from annual allocations.

Undated within-year commissioning assumes half-year production availability. Balikpapan’s January 2026 inauguration uses 11.5 months; Benicia’s end-April closure uses eight months of loss. Year-end capacity and average production capacity remain separate.

Entries dated 2025 or earlier are already in the reference base and are never added again. The source ledger is dated; a forecast date does not prove that commissioning actually occurred. Later verified changes require a reviewed reconciliation.

No. At 80% utilization and a 32% diesel yield, 300,000 bpd of usable capacity produces about 76,800 bpd of diesel on a full-year basis. Partial-year commissioning reduces that year’s contribution further.

No. The 32% defaults are editable scenario coefficients. US EIA distillate yield of 30% in 2025 provides context, but does not establish a worldwide yield. The sensitivity band varies yields by three percentage points and utilization by two.

It follows the actual IEA Oil 2025 gasoil/diesel path: a plateau near 28.5 mb/d in 2027–2028 followed by decline to 28.3 in 2030. It is not falsely described as falling in every year and predates the 2026 disruptions.

Flat consumption holds the IEA 2024 historical gasoil/diesel estimate of 28.3 mb/d constant. Growing consumption compounds that base by the editable annual rate; 1% is an illustrative default, not an agency forecast.

IEA total product demand is supplied partly outside petroleum refineries. Its biodiesel table includes renewable diesel and other distillates such as biojet. An editable allocation, default 90%, is a scenario assumption for gasoil/diesel supply. CTL/GTL diesel remains an unquantified omitted supply term.

It is an undisrupted reference, not evidence that no refineries are offline. Public reports identify damage but do not establish a complete current offline-capacity inventory. Normal maintenance is already represented in utilization; the outage input represents additional exceptional losses.

The selected fraction of exceptional unavailable capacity returns from the start of the chosen year. Throughput and diesel output rise, but installed capacity does not. Recovery dates are scenario choices, not claimed facility restoration commitments.

No. It illustrates regional operational headroom using dated IEA capacity and runs, assumed practical utilization ceilings, diesel yields and deliverability haircuts. Its lower bound is zero and there is no global total. US/Canada is left insufficient where the source group includes Mexico.

No. Shipping restrictions, domestic consumption and inventory changes can reduce exports without the same production loss. JODI gross exports and IEA net-export disruption figures are kept separate and never subtracted again from modeled output.

The monthly JODI pipeline refreshes country submissions. Reviewed annual assumptions, projects and outage evidence retain their original publication dates until manually checked. A new generation timestamp is not a new forecast vintage. Source inputs and ledgers are downloadable.