{"schema_version":2,"methodology_version":"annual-refining-v2","vintage":"IEA Oil 2025 reference schedule; selected 2026 updates","published_on":"2025-06-17","reviewed_on":"2026-10-10","source_url":"https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/c0087308-f434-4284-b5bb-bfaf745c81c3/Oil2025.pdf","status_url":"https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-september-2026","baseline_year":2025,"end_year":2030,"base_note":"Reference opening-2026 capacity is IEA 2024 installed capacity plus its 2025 net schedule. It is an estimate, NOT a measured 2025 total. OPEC observed totals are shown separately because coverage differs (IEA includes condensate splitters). No 2025 project is added twice. Sitra\u2019s 120 kb/d originally scheduled in 2026 is explicitly reclassified into opening capacity after its December 2024 inauguration; it is not added again. This timing reconciliation retains IEA\u2019s rounded increment rather than mixing the operator\u2019s different rated capacity.","regions":[{"name":"OECD Americas","capacity_2024":22.2,"throughput_2024":19.1,"net_schedule_kbd":{"2025":-222,"2026":-145,"2027":0,"2028":0,"2029":0,"2030":0},"oecd":true},{"name":"OECD Europe","capacity_2024":13.7,"throughput_2024":11.2,"net_schedule_kbd":{"2025":-367,"2026":0,"2027":0,"2028":0,"2029":0,"2030":0},"oecd":true},{"name":"OECD Asia","capacity_2024":7.2,"throughput_2024":5.6,"net_schedule_kbd":{"2025":0,"2026":0,"2027":0,"2028":0,"2029":0,"2030":0},"oecd":true},{"name":"China","capacity_2024":18.5,"throughput_2024":14.6,"net_schedule_kbd":{"2025":389,"2026":273,"2027":0,"2028":-50,"2029":0,"2030":320},"oecd":false},{"name":"Other Asia (including India)","capacity_2024":13.1,"throughput_2024":10.8,"net_schedule_kbd":{"2025":40,"2026":684,"2027":60,"2028":206,"2029":85,"2030":180},"oecd":false},{"name":"Middle East","capacity_2024":11.6,"throughput_2024":9.8,"net_schedule_kbd":{"2025":150,"2026":242,"2027":0,"2028":170,"2029":0,"2030":0},"oecd":false},{"name":"Africa","capacity_2024":3.7,"throughput_2024":1.8,"net_schedule_kbd":{"2025":30,"2026":50,"2027":30,"2028":110,"2029":0,"2030":0},"oecd":false},{"name":"Central and South America","capacity_2024":5.7,"throughput_2024":3.7,"net_schedule_kbd":{"2025":15,"2026":0,"2027":0,"2028":0,"2029":115,"2030":0},"oecd":false},{"name":"Eurasia","capacity_2024":9.2,"throughput_2024":5.7,"net_schedule_kbd":{"2025":127,"2026":50,"2027":0,"2028":0,"2029":0,"2030":0},"oecd":false},{"name":"Other Europe","capacity_2024":0.8,"throughput_2024":0.5,"net_schedule_kbd":{"2025":0,"2026":0,"2027":0,"2028":0,"2029":0,"2030":0},"oecd":false}],"projects":[{"name":"Dos Bocas","country":"Mexico","region":"OECD Americas","existing_kbd":null,"increment_kbd":170,"year":2025,"status":"planned","latest_update":"2025-06-17","source_url":"https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/c0087308-f434-4284-b5bb-bfaf745c81c3/Oil2025.pdf","published_on":"2025-06-17","reviewed_on":"2026-10-10","included_in_base":true,"note":"IEA Table 4b rounded to nearest 10 kb/d; year is the source forecast, not a completion guarantee.","source_schedule_year":2025,"source_schedule_kbd":170,"first_year_fraction":0.5},{"name":"Zhenhai","country":"China","region":"China","existing_kbd":null,"increment_kbd":240,"year":2025,"status":"planned","latest_update":"2025-06-17","source_url":"https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/c0087308-f434-4284-b5bb-bfaf745c81c3/Oil2025.pdf","published_on":"2025-06-17","reviewed_on":"2026-10-10","included_in_base":true,"note":"IEA Table 4b rounded to nearest 10 kb/d; year is the source forecast, not a completion guarantee.","source_schedule_year":2025,"source_schedule_kbd":240,"first_year_fraction":0.5},{"name":"Yulong","country":"China","region":"China","existing_kbd":null,"increment_kbd":210,"year":2025,"status":"planned","latest_update":"2025-06-17","source_url":"https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/c0087308-f434-4284-b5bb-bfaf745c81c3/Oil2025.pdf","published_on":"2025-06-17","reviewed_on":"2026-10-10","included_in_base":true,"note":"IEA Table 4b rounded to nearest 10 kb/d; year is the source forecast, not a completion guarantee.","source_schedule_year":2025,"source_schedule_kbd":210,"first_year_fraction":0.5},{"name":"Daxie","country":"China","region":"China","existing_kbd":null,"increment_kbd":130,"year":2025,"status":"planned","latest_update":"2025-06-17","source_url":"https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/c0087308-f434-4284-b5bb-bfaf745c81c3/Oil2025.pdf","published_on":"2025-06-17","reviewed_on":"2026-10-10","included_in_base":true,"note":"IEA Table 4b rounded to nearest 10 kb/d; year is the source forecast, not a completion guarantee.","source_schedule_year":2025,"source_schedule_kbd":130,"first_year_fraction":0.5},{"name":"Persian Gulf Star","country":"Iran","region":"Middle East","existing_kbd":null,"increment_kbd":120,"year":2025,"status":"planned","latest_update":"2025-06-17","source_url":"https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/c0087308-f434-4284-b5bb-bfaf745c81c3/Oil2025.pdf","published_on":"2025-06-17","reviewed_on":"2026-10-10","included_in_base":true,"note":"IEA Table 4b rounded to nearest 10 kb/d; year is the source forecast, not a completion guarantee.","source_schedule_year":2025,"source_schedule_kbd":120,"first_year_fraction":0.5},{"name":"Huajin Panjin II","country":"China","region":"China","existing_kbd":null,"increment_kbd":300,"year":2026,"status":"under construction","latest_update":"2025-08-05","source_url":"https://www.aramco.com/-/media/publications/corporate-reports/reports-and-presentations/2025/h1/saudi-aramco-h1-2025-interim-report-english.pdf","published_on":"2025-08-05","reviewed_on":"2026-10-10","included_in_base":false,"note":"Aramco H1 2025: 70% complete, 300 kb/d, expected H2 2026. Source schedule had 320; no automatic assumption of operational status in October 2026.","source_schedule_year":2026,"source_schedule_kbd":320,"first_year_fraction":0.5},{"name":"Gulei II","country":"China","region":"China","existing_kbd":null,"increment_kbd":320,"year":2030,"status":"under construction","latest_update":"2024-11-18","source_url":"https://www.aramco.com/en/news-media/news/2024/aramco-sinopec-and-fujian-petrochemical-break-ground-on-new-refining-and-petrochemical-project","published_on":"2024-11-18","reviewed_on":"2026-10-10","included_in_base":false,"note":"Operator groundbreaking; 320 kb/d, fully operational by end-2030. Quarter-year equivalent ramp is an explicit model assumption. High chemical conversion: actual diesel yield is undisclosed; test a lower incremental yield.","source_schedule_year":2030,"source_schedule_kbd":320,"first_year_fraction":0.25},{"name":"Qilu","country":"China","region":"China","existing_kbd":null,"increment_kbd":70,"year":2028,"status":"planned","latest_update":"2025-06-17","source_url":"https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/c0087308-f434-4284-b5bb-bfaf745c81c3/Oil2025.pdf","published_on":"2025-06-17","reviewed_on":"2026-10-10","included_in_base":false,"note":"IEA Table 4b rounded to nearest 10 kb/d; year is the source forecast, not a completion guarantee.","source_schedule_year":2028,"source_schedule_kbd":70,"first_year_fraction":0.5},{"name":"Sitra expansion","country":"Bahrain","region":"Middle East","existing_kbd":267,"increment_kbd":120,"year":2024,"status":"operational","latest_update":"2024-12-18","source_url":"https://www.bapcoenergies.com/ar/media-centre/press-releases/his-majesty-the-king-inaugurates-the-bapco-modernization-project","published_on":"2024-12-18","reviewed_on":"2026-10-10","included_in_base":true,"note":"Operator inauguration predates the model. Reclassify the IEA 120 kb/d 2026 increment into opening capacity; never count restart after 2026 damage as new construction. Rated capacities differ across sources; retain IEA units for reconciliation.","source_schedule_year":2026,"source_schedule_kbd":120,"first_year_fraction":0.5},{"name":"Dhi Qar","country":"Iraq","region":"Middle East","existing_kbd":null,"increment_kbd":100,"year":2028,"status":"planned","latest_update":"2025-06-17","source_url":"https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/c0087308-f434-4284-b5bb-bfaf745c81c3/Oil2025.pdf","published_on":"2025-06-17","reviewed_on":"2026-10-10","included_in_base":false,"note":"IEA Table 4b rounded to nearest 10 kb/d; year is the source forecast, not a completion guarantee.","source_schedule_year":2028,"source_schedule_kbd":100,"first_year_fraction":0.5},{"name":"Diwaniya","country":"Iraq","region":"Middle East","existing_kbd":null,"increment_kbd":70,"year":2028,"status":"planned","latest_update":"2025-06-17","source_url":"https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/c0087308-f434-4284-b5bb-bfaf745c81c3/Oil2025.pdf","published_on":"2025-06-17","reviewed_on":"2026-10-10","included_in_base":false,"note":"IEA Table 4b rounded to nearest 10 kb/d; year is the source forecast, not a completion guarantee.","source_schedule_year":2028,"source_schedule_kbd":70,"first_year_fraction":0.5},{"name":"Missan","country":"Iraq","region":"Middle East","existing_kbd":null,"increment_kbd":70,"year":2026,"status":"planned","latest_update":"2025-06-17","source_url":"https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/c0087308-f434-4284-b5bb-bfaf745c81c3/Oil2025.pdf","published_on":"2025-06-17","reviewed_on":"2026-10-10","included_in_base":false,"note":"IEA Table 4b rounded to nearest 10 kb/d; year is the source forecast, not a completion guarantee.","source_schedule_year":2026,"source_schedule_kbd":70,"first_year_fraction":0.5},{"name":"RNEST","country":"Brazil","region":"Central and South America","existing_kbd":130,"increment_kbd":130,"year":2029,"status":"under construction","latest_update":"2025-06-16","source_url":"https://agencia.petrobras.com.br/en/w/petrobras-assina-contratos-para-a-retomada-da-construcao-do-trem-2-da-rnest","published_on":"2025-06-16","reviewed_on":"2026-10-10","included_in_base":false,"note":"Petrobras contracts to resume Train 2 construction; 130 to 260 kb/d by 2029. Replaces IEA rounded 120 increment with operator 130. Diesel hydrotreating unit is 82 kb/d; that unit rating is not actual diesel production or an automatic 63% refinery yield.","source_schedule_year":2029,"source_schedule_kbd":120,"first_year_fraction":0.5},{"name":"Hassi-Messaoud","country":"Algeria","region":"Africa","existing_kbd":null,"increment_kbd":110,"year":2028,"status":"planned","latest_update":"2025-06-17","source_url":"https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/c0087308-f434-4284-b5bb-bfaf745c81c3/Oil2025.pdf","published_on":"2025-06-17","reviewed_on":"2026-10-10","included_in_base":false,"note":"IEA Table 4b rounded to nearest 10 kb/d; year is the source forecast, not a completion guarantee.","source_schedule_year":2028,"source_schedule_kbd":110,"first_year_fraction":0.5},{"name":"Panipat","country":"India","region":"Other Asia (including India)","existing_kbd":null,"increment_kbd":200,"year":2026,"status":"under construction","latest_update":"2025-12-31","source_url":"https://iocl.com/uploads/IOCL_Investor_Presentation_FY25-26Q3.pdf","published_on":null,"reviewed_on":"2026-10-10","included_in_base":false,"note":"IOCL Q3 FY2025/26 presentation, progress as of December 31, 2025. Panipat expected December 2026 with progressive start from June; Gujarat November 2026 with progressive start July 2025; Barauni August 2026. Model uses IEA rounded incremental kb/d; partial-year availability is an explicit ramp assumption, not achieved output. Exact publication day unavailable.","source_schedule_year":2026,"source_schedule_kbd":200,"first_year_fraction":0.25},{"name":"Nagapattinam","country":"India","region":"Other Asia (including India)","existing_kbd":null,"increment_kbd":180,"year":2030,"status":"planned","latest_update":"2025-06-17","source_url":"https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/c0087308-f434-4284-b5bb-bfaf745c81c3/Oil2025.pdf","published_on":"2025-06-17","reviewed_on":"2026-10-10","included_in_base":false,"note":"IEA Table 4b rounded to nearest 10 kb/d; year is the source forecast, not a completion guarantee.","source_schedule_year":2030,"source_schedule_kbd":180,"first_year_fraction":0.5},{"name":"Barmer","country":"India","region":"Other Asia (including India)","existing_kbd":null,"increment_kbd":180,"year":2026,"status":"operational","latest_update":"2026-07-04","source_url":"https://www.hindustanpetroleum.com/hp-refineries","published_on":null,"reviewed_on":"2026-10-10","included_in_base":false,"note":"HPCL reports dedication July 4, 2026 of 9 MMTPA HRRL refinery. IEA rounded 180 kb/d retained; half-year availability does not assert full achieved throughput.","source_schedule_year":2026,"source_schedule_kbd":180,"first_year_fraction":0.5},{"name":"Barauni replacement units","country":"India","region":"Other Asia (including India)","existing_kbd":null,"increment_kbd":130,"year":2026,"status":"under construction","latest_update":"2025-12-31","source_url":"https://iocl.com/uploads/IOCL_Investor_Presentation_FY25-26Q3.pdf","published_on":null,"reviewed_on":"2026-10-10","included_in_base":false,"note":"IOCL Q3 FY2025/26 presentation, progress as of December 31, 2025. Panipat expected December 2026 with progressive start from June; Gujarat November 2026 with progressive start July 2025; Barauni August 2026. Model uses IEA rounded incremental kb/d; partial-year availability is an explicit ramp assumption, not achieved output. Exact publication day unavailable.","source_schedule_year":2027,"source_schedule_kbd":130,"first_year_fraction":0.4166666666666667},{"name":"Numaligarh","country":"India","region":"Other Asia (including India)","existing_kbd":null,"increment_kbd":120,"year":2026,"status":"under construction","latest_update":"2024-08-12","source_url":"https://www.nrl.co.in/upload/NRL_Annual_Report_2023-24_12082024.pdf","published_on":null,"reviewed_on":"2026-10-10","included_in_base":false,"note":"NRL annual report confirms ongoing 3 to 9 MMTPA expansion. 2026 model year and rounded 120 kb/d remain dated IEA assumptions; no newer verified completion date.","source_schedule_year":2026,"source_schedule_kbd":120,"first_year_fraction":0.5},{"name":"Koyali","country":"India","region":"Other Asia (including India)","existing_kbd":null,"increment_kbd":80,"year":2026,"status":"under construction","latest_update":"2025-12-31","source_url":"https://iocl.com/uploads/IOCL_Investor_Presentation_FY25-26Q3.pdf","published_on":null,"reviewed_on":"2026-10-10","included_in_base":false,"note":"IOCL Q3 FY2025/26 presentation, progress as of December 31, 2025. Panipat expected December 2026 with progressive start from June; Gujarat November 2026 with progressive start July 2025; Barauni August 2026. Model uses IEA rounded incremental kb/d; partial-year availability is an explicit ramp assumption, not achieved output. Exact publication day unavailable.","source_schedule_year":2026,"source_schedule_kbd":80,"first_year_fraction":0.16666666666666666},{"name":"Sriracha I","country":"Thailand","region":"Other Asia (including India)","existing_kbd":null,"increment_kbd":100,"year":2028,"status":"under construction","latest_update":null,"source_url":"https://www.thaioilgroup.com/en/news-post/thaioil-reveals-2025-business-strategy-andexpedites-clean-fuel-project-cfp-management/","published_on":null,"reviewed_on":"2026-10-10","included_in_base":false,"note":"Operator confirms CFP under construction with major equipment delivered; exact article date unavailable. 100 kb/d and 2028 remain IEA source assumptions. Quarter-year ramp assumption reflects late commissioning risk, not reported production.","source_schedule_year":2028,"source_schedule_kbd":100,"first_year_fraction":0.25},{"name":"Balikpapan","country":"Indonesia","region":"Other Asia (including India)","existing_kbd":260,"increment_kbd":100,"year":2026,"status":"operational","latest_update":"2026-01-12","source_url":"https://www.esdm.go.id/en/media-center/news-archives/resmikan-pengembangan-kilang-balikpapan-presiden-prabowo-kita-mampu-mandiri-energi","published_on":"2026-01-12","reviewed_on":"2026-10-10","included_in_base":false,"note":"Inaugurated January 12, 2026. Model uses 11.5/12 first-year availability; capacity does not prove achieved diesel output.","source_schedule_year":2026,"source_schedule_kbd":100,"first_year_fraction":0.9583333333333334},{"name":"Dangote proposed expansion","country":"Nigeria","region":"Africa","existing_kbd":700,"increment_kbd":700,"year":null,"status":"planned","latest_update":null,"source_url":"https://go.dangote.com/about-us/","published_on":null,"reviewed_on":"2026-10-10","included_in_base":false,"note":"Undated operator page describes 700 kb/d and a pathway to 1.4 mb/d. No verified commissioning year; excluded from every forecast year. Current capacity is not used to revise the 2025 base without a dated reconciliation.","source_schedule_year":null,"source_schedule_kbd":700,"first_year_fraction":0.5}],"closures":[{"name":"Wilmington (Phillips 66)","country":"United States","region":"OECD Americas","capacity_kbd":140,"year":2025,"status":"source forecast","included_in_base":true,"source_url":"https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/c0087308-f434-4284-b5bb-bfaf745c81c3/Oil2025.pdf","published_on":"2025-06-17","latest_update":"2025-06-17","reviewed_on":"2026-10-10","note":"Rounded IEA Table 4b; past-year records are already in the reference base and never deducted again.","source_schedule_year":2025,"source_schedule_kbd":140,"first_year_fraction":0.5},{"name":"Houston Lyondell","country":"United States","region":"OECD Americas","capacity_kbd":260,"year":2025,"status":"source forecast","included_in_base":true,"source_url":"https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/c0087308-f434-4284-b5bb-bfaf745c81c3/Oil2025.pdf","published_on":"2025-06-17","latest_update":"2025-06-17","reviewed_on":"2026-10-10","note":"Rounded IEA Table 4b; past-year records are already in the reference base and never deducted again.","source_schedule_year":2025,"source_schedule_kbd":260,"first_year_fraction":0.5},{"name":"Gelsenkirchen","country":"Germany","region":"OECD Europe","capacity_kbd":80,"year":2025,"status":"source forecast","included_in_base":true,"source_url":"https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/c0087308-f434-4284-b5bb-bfaf745c81c3/Oil2025.pdf","published_on":"2025-06-17","latest_update":"2025-06-17","reviewed_on":"2026-10-10","note":"Rounded IEA Table 4b; past-year records are already in the reference base and never deducted again.","source_schedule_year":2025,"source_schedule_kbd":80,"first_year_fraction":0.5},{"name":"Wesseling","country":"Germany","region":"OECD Europe","capacity_kbd":150,"year":2025,"status":"source forecast","included_in_base":true,"source_url":"https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/c0087308-f434-4284-b5bb-bfaf745c81c3/Oil2025.pdf","published_on":"2025-06-17","latest_update":"2025-06-17","reviewed_on":"2026-10-10","note":"Rounded IEA Table 4b; past-year records are already in the reference base and never deducted again.","source_schedule_year":2025,"source_schedule_kbd":150,"first_year_fraction":0.5},{"name":"Grangemouth","country":"United Kingdom","region":"OECD Europe","capacity_kbd":140,"year":2025,"status":"source forecast","included_in_base":true,"source_url":"https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/c0087308-f434-4284-b5bb-bfaf745c81c3/Oil2025.pdf","published_on":"2025-06-17","latest_update":"2025-06-17","reviewed_on":"2026-10-10","note":"Rounded IEA Table 4b; past-year records are already in the reference base and never deducted again.","source_schedule_year":2025,"source_schedule_kbd":140,"first_year_fraction":0.5},{"name":"Dalian II WEPEC","country":"China","region":"China","capacity_kbd":200,"year":2025,"status":"source forecast","included_in_base":true,"source_url":"https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/c0087308-f434-4284-b5bb-bfaf745c81c3/Oil2025.pdf","published_on":"2025-06-17","latest_update":"2025-06-17","reviewed_on":"2026-10-10","note":"Rounded IEA Table 4b; past-year records are already in the reference base and never deducted again.","source_schedule_year":2025,"source_schedule_kbd":200,"first_year_fraction":0.5},{"name":"Benicia","country":"United States","region":"OECD Americas","capacity_kbd":150,"year":2026,"status":"closed","included_in_base":false,"source_url":"https://investorvalero.com/news/news-details/2026/Valero-Energy-Reports-Second-Quarter-2026-Results/default.aspx","published_on":"2026-07-30","latest_update":"2026-07-30","reviewed_on":"2026-10-10","note":"Valero confirms full cessation by end-April 2026. 150 kb/d retained as rounded IEA-compatible capacity. First-year loss is 8/12.","source_schedule_year":2026,"source_schedule_kbd":150,"first_year_fraction":0.6666666666666666},{"name":"Barauni old units","country":"India","region":"Other Asia (including India)","capacity_kbd":70,"year":2026,"status":"source forecast","included_in_base":false,"source_url":"https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/c0087308-f434-4284-b5bb-bfaf745c81c3/Oil2025.pdf","published_on":"2025-06-17","latest_update":"2025-06-17","reviewed_on":"2026-10-10","note":"Closure of old units assumed to coincide with replacement commissioning in August 2026; not independently confirmed. It follows replacement delivery and delay assumptions. Original IEA schedule was 2027.","source_schedule_year":2027,"source_schedule_kbd":70,"first_year_fraction":0.4166666666666667,"replacement_project":"Barauni replacement units"}],"observed_history":[{"year":2021,"capacity":100.97,"oecd_capacity":43.13,"throughput":null,"kind":"historical observation","source_url":"https://publications.opec.org/asb/chapter/show/154/2833/2839"},{"year":2022,"capacity":101.37,"oecd_capacity":42.87,"throughput":null,"kind":"historical observation","source_url":"https://publications.opec.org/asb/chapter/show/154/2833/2839"},{"year":2023,"capacity":102.58,"oecd_capacity":42.91,"throughput":null,"kind":"historical observation","source_url":"https://publications.opec.org/asb/chapter/show/154/2833/2839"},{"year":2024,"capacity":103.62,"oecd_capacity":43.07,"throughput":85.72,"kind":"historical observation","source_url":"https://publications.opec.org/asb/chapter/show/154/2833/2839"},{"year":2025,"capacity":103.66,"oecd_capacity":42.21,"throughput":86.89,"kind":"historical observation","source_url":"https://publications.opec.org/asb/chapter/show/154/2833/2839"}],"demand":{"product":"IEA gasoil/diesel, including non-refinery contributions; excludes jet/kerosene","base_year":2024,"base_mbd":28.3,"iea_path_mbd":{"2024":28.3,"2025":28.3,"2026":28.4,"2027":28.5,"2028":28.5,"2029":28.4,"2030":28.3},"biodiesel_mbd":{"2024":1.26,"2025":1.344,"2026":1.445,"2027":1.492,"2028":1.55,"2029":1.578,"2030":1.599},"source_url":"https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/c0087308-f434-4284-b5bb-bfaf745c81c3/Oil2025.pdf","published_on":"2025-06-17","note":"Table p15 includes total product demand; Table5a biodiesel includes renewable diesel and, per p79, biojet/heating oil. An editable allocation excludes biojet. CTL/GTL gasoil is not quantified here and remains an omitted supply term."},"defaults":{"scenario":"flat","growth":1,"delivery":85,"planned":0,"delay":0,"utilization":80,"yield_existing":32,"yield_new":32,"outage":0,"recovery":100,"recovery_year":2027,"bio_share":90},"assumptions":["This is a conditional capacity-and-yield model, not an agency forecast or a measured global balance.","Unknown project status is conservatively planned. Planned projects and unitemized source residuals are excluded by default; increase their delivery percentage to explore the full dated IEA schedule.","80% operating utilization and 32% diesel yield are editable scenario assumptions, not measured world coefficients. IEA 2024 utilization is about 78%; US EIA distillate yield was 30% in 2025. Global configurations differ.","The sensitivity envelope varies utilization by +/-2 percentage points and both diesel yields by +/-3 points. It is not a statistical confidence interval.","Commissioning and closures use half-year availability unless a dated event supports a different fraction. Gross annual source changes are only partly itemized; residual net changes are shown separately.","Temporary unavailable capacity defaults to zero because a reliable current offline-capacity total and recovery timetable are missing. This is an undisrupted reference, not a claim that outages are zero. Utilization includes normal maintenance; the outage input is an additional exceptional loss.","Demand A follows the actual IEA plateau-then-decline path, rather than falsely calling it a continuous decline. Flat and growing demand use the 2024 observed IEA estimate of 28.3 mb/d.","Potential annual production is throughput times yield; other products compete for conversion and hydrogen. Inventories, logistics, CTL/GTL diesel and product quality are not fully modeled. A positive balance is potential adequacy, not guaranteed delivery."],"outages":[{"name":"Sitra","country":"Bahrain","unavailable_kbd":null,"recovered_kbd":null,"remaining_kbd":null,"restoration_date":null,"observation_period":"2026-04","published_on":"2026-04-14","source_url":"https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/515f3128-df1a-4d6c-beb4-fd91d2434bef/-14APR2026_OilMarketReport_Free_version1.pdf","note":"IEA identifies damage and a slower restart. No verified plant-specific capacity loss or recovery amount in this public source; not assigned a made-up recovery date."},{"name":"Mina Al Ahmadi","country":"Kuwait","unavailable_kbd":null,"recovered_kbd":null,"remaining_kbd":null,"restoration_date":null,"observation_period":"2026-04","published_on":"2026-04-14","source_url":"https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/515f3128-df1a-4d6c-beb4-fd91d2434bef/-14APR2026_OilMarketReport_Free_version1.pdf","note":"IEA identifies damage and a slower restart. No verified plant-specific capacity loss or recovery amount in this public source; not assigned a made-up recovery date."},{"name":"Ruwais","country":"UAE","unavailable_kbd":null,"recovered_kbd":null,"remaining_kbd":null,"restoration_date":null,"observation_period":"2026-04","published_on":"2026-04-14","source_url":"https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/515f3128-df1a-4d6c-beb4-fd91d2434bef/-14APR2026_OilMarketReport_Free_version1.pdf","note":"IEA identifies damage and a slower restart. No verified plant-specific capacity loss or recovery amount in this public source; not assigned a made-up recovery date."},{"name":"SATORP","country":"Saudi Arabia","unavailable_kbd":null,"recovered_kbd":null,"remaining_kbd":null,"restoration_date":null,"observation_period":"2026-04","published_on":"2026-04-14","source_url":"https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/515f3128-df1a-4d6c-beb4-fd91d2434bef/-14APR2026_OilMarketReport_Free_version1.pdf","note":"IEA identifies damage and a slower restart. No verified plant-specific capacity loss or recovery amount in this public source; not assigned a made-up recovery date."}],"disruption_context":{"period":"2026-08","published_on":"2026-09-11","source_url":"https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-september-2026","gulf_net_exports_kbd":390,"combined_gulf_russia_change_vs_feb_kbd":-1600,"refinery_runs_mbd":81.4,"note":"Net export loss is not a refinery capacity loss. It is not subtracted in this model. September OMR is context; no verified October plant recovery inventory is available."},"sources":[{"name":"IEA Oil 2025: pp15,79,91,101; Tables4,4b,5a","url":"https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/c0087308-f434-4284-b5bb-bfaf745c81c3/Oil2025.pdf","published_on":"2025-06-17","scope":"Demand, capacity, annual net schedules and selected projects; CC BY 4.0"},{"name":"OPEC ASB 2026 capacity table","url":"https://publications.opec.org/asb/chapter/show/154/2833/2839","published_on":"2026-04-29","scope":"2021\u20132025 observed capacity; rounded regional totals"},{"name":"OPEC ASB 2026 release","url":"https://www.opec.org/pr-detail/601-29-april-2026.html","published_on":"2026-04-29","scope":"2025 throughput 86.89, increase 1.17 mb/d; 2024 throughput derived by subtraction"},{"name":"US EIA refinery yields","url":"https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_pct_dc_nus_pct_a.htm","published_on":"2026-09-30","scope":"US distillate yield 30% in 2025; context only, not global measured yield"},{"name":"IEA April 2026 OMR","url":"https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/515f3128-df1a-4d6c-beb4-fd91d2434bef/-14APR2026_OilMarketReport_Free_version1.pdf","published_on":"2026-04-14","scope":"Named damaged refineries; aggregate throughput forecast revisions are not offline nameplate"},{"name":"IEA September 2026 OMR","url":"https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-september-2026","published_on":"2026-09-11","scope":"August runs and net-export disruption context"}],"opening_adjustments":{"Middle East":0.12},"headroom_regions":[{"name":"US and Canada","capacity":null,"throughput":null,"year":2024,"maximum_utilization":92,"yield_low":27,"yield_high":33,"deliverable_low":0,"deliverable_high":null,"note":"Source regional group also includes Mexico; no fabricated US/Canada split."},{"name":"OECD Americas (includes Mexico)","capacity":22.2,"throughput":19.1,"year":2024,"maximum_utilization":92,"yield_low":27,"yield_high":33,"deliverable_low":0,"deliverable_high":70,"note":"Ports, maintenance and crude slate constrain incremental runs."},{"name":"Europe (OECD)","capacity":13.7,"throughput":11.2,"year":2024,"maximum_utilization":88,"yield_low":27,"yield_high":37,"deliverable_low":0,"deliverable_high":60,"note":"Hydrogen, conversion and jet competition; closure exposure."},{"name":"China","capacity":18.5,"throughput":14.6,"year":2024,"maximum_utilization":88,"yield_low":27,"yield_high":37,"deliverable_low":0,"deliverable_high":40,"note":"Export quotas and petrochemical configuration limit deliverability."},{"name":"India","capacity":5.8,"throughput":5.4,"year":2024,"maximum_utilization":95,"yield_low":27,"yield_high":37,"deliverable_low":0,"deliverable_high":70,"note":"Already high utilization; little distillation headroom."},{"name":"Middle East","capacity":11.6,"throughput":9.8,"year":2024,"maximum_utilization":90,"yield_low":27,"yield_high":37,"deliverable_low":0,"deliverable_high":40,"note":"2024 reference predates damage; current spare diesel is not established."},{"name":"Other Asia excluding India","capacity":7.3,"throughput":5.4,"year":2024,"maximum_utilization":88,"yield_low":27,"yield_high":37,"deliverable_low":0,"deliverable_high":50,"note":"Derived from IEA Other Asia less India; feedstock and logistics constraints."},{"name":"Latin America","capacity":5.7,"throughput":3.7,"year":2024,"maximum_utilization":80,"yield_low":27,"yield_high":37,"deliverable_low":0,"deliverable_high":30,"note":"Low historical runs do not prove idle units can restart."},{"name":"Africa","capacity":3.7,"throughput":1.8,"year":2024,"maximum_utilization":80,"yield_low":27,"yield_high":37,"deliverable_low":0,"deliverable_high":25,"note":"2024 baseline predates full ramp-ups; feedstock and reliability constraints."}],"headroom_note":"Regional illustration anchored to IEA 2024 runs/capacity, not actual 2026 spare diesel. Maximum utilization, yield intervals and deliverable fractions are StorageCurve stress assumptions. Lower deliverable bound is zero: public data cannot establish a guaranteed amount. No world total is calculated.","generated_at":"2026-10-10T14:36:19+00:00"}