Global Oil Supply & Demand Forecast

It compares the agencies’ expectations for world oil supply, consumption and implied inventory change. These are agency projections, not a StorageCurve price forecast. Full calendar years, monthly EIA paths and saved releases answer different parts of the question.

The default target is the next calendar year, currently 2027. An annual average covers January through December and can differ substantially from both the next twelve months and the rate expected in December. Choose a year or rolling horizon to change the view.

EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook supplies monthly world liquids flows and OECD commercial stocks. OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report appendices supply annual and quarterly demand and partial supply. IEA Oil Market Report public highlights supply available headline figures; any supplementary IEF comparison is explicitly linked.

Their baselines, product coverage, economic assumptions, disruption scenarios and estimates of unreported activity differ. Demand-growth forecasts can converge while demand levels remain far apart. The table preserves each agency’s own figures instead of mixing inputs into an artificial consensus balance.

No. The appendix gives non-DoC liquids plus DoC natural gas liquids, then the implied requirement for DoC crude. That requirement is demand minus partial supply. It is not an independent forecast of actual DoC production, so it cannot establish a world surplus.

Only public OMR highlights and explicitly attributed public supplements are used. The full monthly tables require separate access. A missing level is not reconstructed from a different agency or filled with zero. Rounded supply levels derived from published growth are labelled.

Supply minus consumption, in million barrels per day. Positive values imply stock building; negative values imply drawing. This is an accounting residual from estimates and forecasts, not a complete survey of tanks.

Multiply each monthly supply-minus-demand rate by the actual number of calendar days, then sum. The result is million barrels. February and leap years have their proper weights; an annual daily rate is a day-weighted average.

No. The global implied stock change covers the whole liquid-fuels balance. The OECD commercial series is an end-of-month regional stock level. It excludes many government and non-OECD inventories and is shown separately, never added to the global change.

No. EIA world petroleum and other liquid fuels includes more than crude: petroleum products, natural gas liquids, biofuels and other liquids. Products and crude cannot always substitute across locations, qualities or refinery constraints.

An annual average can combine early draws with larger later builds. Inspect the monthly balance and cumulative stock-change chart to see the timing. A later surplus does not make barrels available earlier.

Earlier EIA months are labelled historical estimates and remain revisable. The release month onward is displayed as forecast. OPEC annual totals for an unfinished year mix estimates and projections. These labels do not imply all global flows have been directly measured.

Here it is a conditional allocation: the period’s signed net stock build minus your opening refill gap, floored at zero. It shows the part of that projected net increase exceeding the chosen target. It is not an agency forecast of freely tradable barrels.

There is no universally agreed world normal-stock level. Enter the inventory gap you want to replace at the beginning of the selected period. The initial 500 million barrels is an illustrative scenario, not a measured deficit or an agency target.

No. Supply minus consumption already gives the implied stock build. The calculation allocates that build to your refill target; it does not first deduct inventory purchases from consumption and then deduct them again from the balance.

Draws offset builds before the refill calculation. If the period has a net draw, remaining surplus is zero and the unfilled gap increases. The cumulative chart exposes intervening shortages even when the eventual net result is positive.

Only if you explicitly assume it is also the opening gap on January 1. Draws or builds before that date change the starting position. This calculator does not quietly carry today’s inventory deficit into a future calendar year.

No. Inventory holders, policy, storage capacity, refinery needs, grade and transport constraints affect availability. This is an arithmetic scenario conditional on an agency’s supply and consumption path and your target; it does not forecast purchases or prices.

A vintage is the projection published in a particular release month. Comparing September’s 2027 forecast with August’s 2027 forecast measures a revision. Comparing 2027 with 2026 within one release measures year-on-year change instead.

Captured releases are retained in a separate archive. If an agency changes values within the same release month, a correction is appended. The interface can select each saved version, and a full archive download preserves them.

The archive begins with available 2026 EIA and OPEC workbooks, while IEA public-highlight capture starts at this page’s launch. The release selector shows actual coverage. Missing months are gaps, never interpolated historical forecasts.

The collector runs with StorageCurve’s scheduled data updater and can also run independently. Source dates remain attached to each agency; a fresh collection timestamp does not make an older report current. Failed sources retain their last successful release and expose a warning.

STEO usually ends in December of the following year. Later in the year this offers fewer than 24 forward months. The requested period is labelled incomplete and is not extended by extrapolating the final monthly value.

Yes. Download the displayed monthly EIA CSV or the full normalized JSON archive. The public inputs include source links, release months, flow units and stock levels. Sum signed monthly flows times calendar days, then allocate that net volume against your chosen gap.