US Diesel Market

It separates the Gulf Coast diesel crack versus Brent, national distillate stocks, domestic product supplied, production, exports and refinery utilization. The tightness score is a secondary classification below the observed market data.

EIA weekly US Gulf Coast ultra-low-sulfur No. 2 diesel spot price, in USD/gallon, is multiplied by 42 and compared with the exact same-week Europe Brent spot average in USD/barrel. It is a wholesale spread, not a pump price or futures quote.

The national EIA series measures total distillate fuel oil stocks. Diesel and heating oil share this broader category. The inventory and flow data therefore cover more than road diesel alone, while the price reference is Gulf Coast ULSD.

The crack is one gross product price spread before operating costs, transport, compliance and the economics of other refinery products. It is not PBF realized margin, net income or an earnings forecast.

EIA distillate product supplied is an implied domestic consumption proxy from petroleum supply and disposition statistics. It is estimated, can be revised and is not a direct measurement of every end-user sale.

Each week is compared with the same ISO week and weekday in the five preceding ISO years. The mean, minimum and maximum require all five values. Missing years remain unavailable and ISO week 53 is not replaced with week 1.

Million barrels of total distillate stocks are divided by four-week average domestic distillate product supplied in million barrels per day. The result is days of domestic cover. Exports are excluded from this denominator, and it is not a depletion countdown.

The arithmetic mean of the current week and the three preceding consecutive weeks reduces weekly reporting noise. Each mean requires all four observations. Missing periods are not skipped or filled, and incomplete averages remain unavailable.

Exports are shipments to foreign buyers. Total product pull adds four-week exports to four-week domestic product supplied. It describes both outlets together; the separate demand-and-production chart keeps domestic consumption visible on its own.

Not on its own. Imports, adjustments and other balance terms also matter. The flow graphs show reported rates and do not label their difference as a complete physical surplus or deficit.

The EIA measure is the share of US operable refinery capacity being used. It covers petroleum refining as a whole, not only diesel production. The page shows both the reported weekly percentage and a four-consecutive-week mean.

It is connected to StorageCurve full and weekly updates and the focused diesel update. EIA spot prices and petroleum statistics have separate publication schedules, so stock, price and score dates can differ. Each observation keeps its own date.

The market chart can publish a stock observation while some price or flow inputs are missing. The score requires all its inputs to align. Both source periods are disclosed, and the page does not silently carry a score forward as if it belonged to a newer week.

Missing stock weeks are explicit chart gaps. A crack requires both prices for that exact week, and four-week flow/utilization averages require consecutive periods. A failed required refresh preserves the previous payload with its original collection and observation dates.

The source ledger lists every EIA API v2 series and its latest available observation. The recent-values table and downloadable normalized JSON expose the chart values. The detailed inventory page adds PADD comparisons and longer stock history.

It is an optional summary after the raw market views. It combines price, inventory, product pull and refinery conditions into a deterministic 0–100 classification. The score is not a directly observed price, a probability or a forecast.

Crack spread 45%, inventories 25%, product pull 20% and refinery transmission 10%. The existing model is retained. Components compare with same-week observations in the five preceding ISO years, requiring at least three valid reference years.

The stock chart requires five valid historical observations for its five-year mean and range. The legacy score can use three to five valid same-week reference years. They describe different calculations; their reference coverage must not be treated as identical when years are missing.

No. It is a separate national movement proxy triggered by sudden falls in reported refinery utilization or distillate output. Planned maintenance, yield changes and estimation noise can also trigger it. It does not change the tightness score.

Compare the product crack, seasonal buffer and physical rates first. Gasoline, distillate and jet fuel have different definitions and demand patterns. The PBF tracker combines explicitly marked regional market proxies with company reports; the diesel score alone cannot estimate company earnings.