Oil May Be Entering a New Era
Per’s thesis on what comes after the Middle East crisis: rebuilding inventories, long investment cycles and regional fuel bottlenecks.
Read Per’s oil outlook →STORAGECURVE / OUR VIEWS
Market Analysis
Our views on energy markets and the companies exposed to them. Company cases, market outlooks and scenario models connect the data to what we think could happen next, with the assumptions in view.
PBF Energy Refining Margin Tracker
Explore the margin environment, regional crack proxies and reported quarterly capture. Our model separates observed inputs from benchmark substitutions.
Ownership: the publisher owns PBF Energy shares and considers it a sector favourite.
Explore the PBF analysis →From observations to a view
The data dashboards show the market’s physical position. This category adds our interpretation: the assumptions behind a case and the evidence used to assess it. Published cases and outlooks sit alongside the models that support them.
Explore US gasoline data → · Read the methodology →
About our analysis
What belongs in Market Analysis?
StorageCurve’s own market interpretations, company cases and scenario models belong here. The category gives those views a distinct home alongside the site’s source-dated data dashboards.
How is analysis different from a data page?
A data page organises observations. Analysis adds choices about which observations matter, how to model them and what they might imply. Those choices can change the conclusion even when the source data are unchanged.
Which analysis is available now?
Per’s Oil May Be Entering a New Era outlook and the PBF Energy Refining Margin Tracker are available below. The outlook sets out a personal investment thesis; the tracker combines observed inputs with disclosed regional proxies and a weighted model.
Where will market outlooks appear?
Published outlooks appear in this category with their own author, publication date and sources. Per’s October 2026 oil outlook is the first market outlook listed here.
Who is responsible for these interpretations?
Named authors are responsible for their published views; Per’s outlook links to Pers Aktieblogg and his X profile. StorageCurve is responsible for its modelling choices. Source providers do not endorse these interpretations.
How should I read a company case?
Start with its stated thesis and publication date, then examine the supporting observations, assumptions and conditions that would weaken it. A sector view and a company outcome need separate reasoning.
Does a favourable sector view guarantee company profits?
No. Feedstock costs, realised product prices, refinery availability, expenses and capital structure affect how an industry environment reaches a particular company’s results.
What is the role of scenarios?
A scenario describes the consequence of specified assumptions. It should make the assumptions visible and allow comparison with other outcomes, rather than present one path as certain.
Can an outlook and current data point in different directions?
Yes. Current observations describe a dated market state. An outlook makes assumptions about subsequent changes. Check both the observation date and the reasoning that connects the current state to the proposed future.
What would invalidate an investment thesis?
That depends on the case. Useful challenges include an assumed demand recovery failing, capacity returning sooner, costs rising or a company failing to capture expected margins. A published case should identify its own relevant conditions.
What is an observed input?
An observed input is a dated value from a named provider, with its original unit and market definition. A reported company figure is also dated and should be read with its reporting period and accounting definition.
What is a proxy?
A proxy substitutes an available observation for a missing market, grade or location. It provides context but can diverge from the intended benchmark; the substitution must remain visible beside the model.
Is the PBF Margin Index PBF’s actual margin?
No. It is our basket of five regional gross crack proxies, weighted by reported regional throughput and an assumed West Coast split. Realised company margins are shown separately in quarterly reporting.
Does the tracker predict PBF earnings?
The tracker describes the margin environment. Earnings would additionally require explicit volume, availability, cost, financing, tax and share-count assumptions. A spot crack spread alone cannot supply that bridge.
What happens when a required price is missing?
The PBF model requires matching observation dates for active legs and does not invent missing quotes. It publishes its benchmark substitutions, and an unavailable active leg makes the composite unavailable.
Does the publisher own PBF Energy?
Yes. The publisher owns PBF Energy shares and considers it a sector favourite. This interest is disclosed on the PBF analysis page; no position size or portfolio weight is stated.
Why disclose an ownership interest?
Ownership gives readers relevant context when assessing a favourable company view. It does not verify the thesis or make a model’s estimates equivalent to reported results.
Does a refreshed chart mean the thesis was reviewed?
No. Input collection, observation dates and editorial review are different events. The PBF tracker refreshes its inputs automatically, while new quarterly reports require source review before entering its report ledger.
Where can I inspect the calculations and sources?
The PBF page provides regional substitutions, weights, source dates, quarterly company links and coverage notices. The site’s Methodology page explains the calculation rules and the distinction between observations and estimates.
How can I report a source or modelling issue?
Use the site’s contact form and identify the page, dated observation and calculation in question. Provide a public source where possible so the issue can be checked against the published methodology.