{"schema_version":2,"methodology_version":"inventory-rebuild-v2.1","generated_at":"2026-09-14T03:15:02+00:00","data_through":"2026-08-31","newest_component_date":"2026-09-04","coverage":"Global implied net stock draw: EIA STEO total liquids","unit":"million barrels","rate_unit":"mb/d","estimated_deficit_mmbbl":863.622,"global_draw":{"baseline":"2026-02-28","forecast_start":"2026-09","forecast_end":"2027-01","forecast_months":5,"past_estimate_through":"2026-08-31","past_net_draw_mmbbl":642.494,"forecast_net_draw_mmbbl":221.128,"net_draw_mmbbl":863.622,"refill_basis_mmbbl":863.622,"monthly":[{"date":"2026-03-01","days":31,"supply":96.90384294,"demand":102.1408373,"status":"past_month_estimate","draw_mbd":5.236994,"net_draw_mmbbl":162.347,"cumulative_net_draw_mmbbl":162.347},{"date":"2026-04-01","days":30,"supply":95.4577405,"demand":99.61901003,"status":"past_month_estimate","draw_mbd":4.16127,"net_draw_mmbbl":124.838,"cumulative_net_draw_mmbbl":287.185},{"date":"2026-05-01","days":31,"supply":94.41130742,"demand":99.16822417,"status":"past_month_estimate","draw_mbd":4.756917,"net_draw_mmbbl":147.464,"cumulative_net_draw_mmbbl":434.649},{"date":"2026-06-01","days":30,"supply":99.41390368,"demand":102.0468842,"status":"past_month_estimate","draw_mbd":2.632981,"net_draw_mmbbl":78.989,"cumulative_net_draw_mmbbl":513.639},{"date":"2026-07-01","days":31,"supply":101.7266485,"demand":101.8181314,"status":"past_month_estimate","draw_mbd":0.091483,"net_draw_mmbbl":2.836,"cumulative_net_draw_mmbbl":516.475},{"date":"2026-08-01","days":31,"supply":99.63194465,"demand":103.6970854,"status":"past_month_estimate","draw_mbd":4.065141,"net_draw_mmbbl":126.019,"cumulative_net_draw_mmbbl":642.494},{"date":"2026-09-01","days":30,"supply":99.41320905,"demand":104.210363,"status":"forecast","draw_mbd":4.797154,"net_draw_mmbbl":143.915,"cumulative_net_draw_mmbbl":786.409},{"date":"2026-10-01","days":31,"supply":100.5569579,"demand":102.9872006,"status":"forecast","draw_mbd":2.430243,"net_draw_mmbbl":75.338,"cumulative_net_draw_mmbbl":861.746},{"date":"2026-11-01","days":30,"supply":102.2663085,"demand":103.737284,"status":"forecast","draw_mbd":1.470976,"net_draw_mmbbl":44.129,"cumulative_net_draw_mmbbl":905.875},{"date":"2026-12-01","days":31,"supply":103.637512,"demand":104.8634993,"status":"forecast","draw_mbd":1.225987,"net_draw_mmbbl":38.006,"cumulative_net_draw_mmbbl":943.881},{"date":"2027-01-01","days":31,"supply":104.9645583,"demand":102.3755606,"status":"forecast","draw_mbd":-2.588998,"net_draw_mmbbl":-80.259,"cumulative_net_draw_mmbbl":863.622}]},"components":{"oecd_commercial":{"label":"OECD commercial oil","kind":"commercial","counted":false,"series":"PASC_OECD_T3","type":"EIA STEO historical estimate","url":"https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/data.php","note":"Includes US commercial crude and products. Conservative STEO history cutoff; later stock forecasts excluded.","date":"2026-06-30","current":2735.159,"reference":2784.17,"deficit":49.011,"prewar_date":"2026-02-28","prewar_level":2824.444,"prewar_draw":89.285,"normal":2784.17,"normal_samples":5,"lag_days":76,"stale_after_days":120,"stale":false},"us_spr":{"label":"US Strategic Petroleum Reserve","kind":"strategic","counted":false,"series":"PET.WCSSTUS1.W","type":"Weekly reported stock","url":"https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W","note":"Refill reference is February 2026, not historical capacity. Diagnostic only; not added to the global target.","date":"2026-09-04","current":285.36,"reference":415.441,"deficit":130.081,"prewar_date":"2026-02-27","prewar_level":415.441,"prewar_draw":130.081,"normal":null,"normal_samples":0,"lag_days":10,"stale_after_days":21,"stale":false},"us_crude":{"label":"US commercial crude (subset)","kind":"commercial","counted":false,"series":"PET.WCESTUS1.W","type":"Weekly reported stock","url":"https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCESTUS1&f=W","note":"Already within OECD commercial; diagnostic only, never added.","date":"2026-09-04","current":424.069,"reference":419.924,"deficit":0,"prewar_date":"2026-02-27","prewar_level":439.279,"prewar_draw":15.21,"normal":419.924,"normal_samples":5,"lag_days":10,"stale_after_days":21,"stale":false},"us_distillate":{"label":"US diesel / distillate (subset)","kind":"commercial","counted":false,"series":"PET.WDISTUS1.W","type":"Weekly reported stock","url":"https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WDISTUS1&f=W","note":"Already within OECD commercial. A product shortage can require refinery throughput, not just extra crude in tanks.","date":"2026-09-04","current":106.274,"reference":120.78,"deficit":14.506,"prewar_date":"2026-02-27","prewar_level":120.78,"prewar_draw":14.506,"normal":122.359,"normal_samples":5,"lag_days":10,"stale_after_days":21,"stale":false}},"scenarios":{"low":{"label":"Low","target_mmbbl":431.811,"refill_share":0.5,"replacement_mmbbl":431.811,"additional_buffer_mmbbl":0,"rates_mbd":{"12":1.182234,"24":0.591117,"36":0.394078}},"base":{"label":"Base","target_mmbbl":647.717,"refill_share":0.75,"replacement_mmbbl":647.717,"additional_buffer_mmbbl":0,"rates_mbd":{"12":1.773352,"24":0.886676,"36":0.591117}},"high":{"label":"High","target_mmbbl":863.622,"refill_share":1,"replacement_mmbbl":863.622,"additional_buffer_mmbbl":0,"rates_mbd":{"12":2.364468,"24":1.182234,"36":0.788156}},"buffer125":{"label":"Larger buffer 125%","target_mmbbl":1079.528,"refill_share":1.25,"replacement_mmbbl":863.622,"additional_buffer_mmbbl":215.906,"rates_mbd":{"12":2.955587,"24":1.477793,"36":0.985196}},"buffer150":{"label":"Larger buffer 150%","target_mmbbl":1295.433,"refill_share":1.5,"replacement_mmbbl":863.622,"additional_buffer_mmbbl":431.811,"rates_mbd":{"12":3.546702,"24":1.773351,"36":1.182234}}},"balance":{"outlook":[{"date":"2026-09-01","days":30,"supply":99.41320905,"demand":104.210363,"status":"forecast","draw_mbd":4.797154,"net_draw_mmbbl":143.915,"cumulative_net_draw_mmbbl":786.409},{"date":"2026-10-01","days":31,"supply":100.5569579,"demand":102.9872006,"status":"forecast","draw_mbd":2.430243,"net_draw_mmbbl":75.338,"cumulative_net_draw_mmbbl":861.746},{"date":"2026-11-01","days":30,"supply":102.2663085,"demand":103.737284,"status":"forecast","draw_mbd":1.470976,"net_draw_mmbbl":44.129,"cumulative_net_draw_mmbbl":905.875},{"date":"2026-12-01","days":31,"supply":103.637512,"demand":104.8634993,"status":"forecast","draw_mbd":1.225987,"net_draw_mmbbl":38.006,"cumulative_net_draw_mmbbl":943.881},{"date":"2027-01-01","days":31,"supply":104.9645583,"demand":102.3755606,"status":"forecast","draw_mbd":-2.588998,"net_draw_mmbbl":-80.259,"cumulative_net_draw_mmbbl":863.622}],"forecast_start":"2026-09","diagnostic_history_boundary":"2026-07","released_on":"2026-09-09","checked_at":"2026-09-14T03:15:02+00:00","source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/","series":{"supply":"PAPR_WORLD","demand":"PATC_WORLD"},"unit":"million barrels per day"},"commentary":{"kind":"Automated data summary","text":"The STEO-based calculation projects 864 million barrels of cumulative net depletion from end-February 2026 through 2027-01 (past estimates plus future forecasts), including 221 million barrels of net draw in the five-month forecast window. Replacing 75% gives a conditional target of 648 million barrels, or 0.89 mb/d over 24 months after that window. This is a scenario, not a forecast of purchases or available surplus.","basis":"Deterministic template from validated monthly flows; no AI forecast."},"method":{"baseline":"End-February 2026; not a normal-stock or capacity benchmark","net_draw":"sum((PATC_WORLD - PAPR_WORLD) * actual_calendar_days); builds offset draws before clamping","deficit":"max(cumulative_net_draw, 0)","forecast_limit":"Release month plus four following months; never extended by regeneration","refill":"max(cumulative_net_draw, 0) * refill_share / (horizon_months * 365.25 / 12)","scope":"Worldwide petroleum and other liquid fuels balance: crude and products, natural gas liquids, biofuels and other liquids. Implied residual from estimated supply/consumption, not a measured tank inventory or a regional/strategic split.","expansion":"125/150% replace positive net depletion plus 25/50% of that depletion as additional buffer; not a percentage of absolute baseline stocks. Requires capacity and willingness. Do not also count this expansion as facility filling.","accounting":"OECD, SPR, China and IEA diagnostics are not added. Refill scenarios start after the net-draw window; no second allocation of the same forecast builds."}}